Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

SpaceX Updates (Thread 6)


234 replies to this topic

#1 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 17 July 2017 - 06:01 PM

Thread 5: https://thespaceport...dates-thread-5/

Starting Thread 6 because of Musk talking at ISS R&D 2017 Wednesday, the BFR/ITS update at IAC2017 (Sept. 25-29) in Adelaide Australia and other developments.

ISS R&D is usually streamed on the CASIS YouTube channel:

https://www.youtube.com/user/ISSCASIS

Now for some beef,

Bear in mind that SpaceX is agile, turning on a dime and accelerating away like an NFL running back. They're doing it again.

Red Dragon's purpose has been a pathfinder for propulsive landings for; Commercial Crew, CRS (Commercial Cargo) Round 2 and for a future Mars architecture.

Last September the Mars architecture selected was a vertically landing lifting body, which has little in common with landing a capsule but much in common with vertically landing a booster - which it appears they have locked down rather nicely.

Since then, NASA has decided they don't want propulsive landings for either Commercial Crew or Commercial Resupply Services Round 2 (CRS Round 2). This In spite of ALL the CCtCap propulsive landing milestones having been met. The issues appear to be NASA's usual risk aversion, the safety panels, skittish congressional oversight etc.

Red Dragon became a mission without a purpose. Monkey motion and a diversion of resources.

End result: Red Dragon is cancelled, and Dragon 2 propulsive landing development delayed at the least.

The handwriting has been on the wall since September 2016, and leaks on both r/SpaceX and NSF have let the cats out of the bag.

Reddit....

NASASpaceFlight....

The new path appears to be going directly to BFR/ITS derived systems including a new heavy booster forum users have dubbed mini-ITS. From the indications so far, there's nothing "mini" about it. We may get a hint or three on Wednesaay, or not.

This is coming faster than anyone thought, and part of why SpaceX "went there" in saying NASA needs to consider a new COTS competition for commercializing the cis-lunar station plans, including surface landings.

As soon as Block 5 and Commercial Crew development are checked off and become production items, it's a huge shift of money and people to BFR/BFS. And don't be surprised if the communications network is launched by the new system.

Fasten your seat belts.

Edited by DocM, 17 July 2017 - 06:37 PM.

myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#2 rubicondsrv

rubicondsrv

    Jupiter

  • Members
  • 4,226 posts

Posted 17 July 2017 - 09:03 PM

Thread 5: https://thespaceport...dates-thread-5/



Since then, NASA has decided they don't want propulsive landings for either Commercial Crew or Commercial Resupply Services Round 2 (CRS Round 2). This In spite of ALL the CCtCap propulsive landing milestones having been met. The issues appear to be NASA's usual risk aversion, the safety panels, skittish congressional oversight etc.

 

 

Hopefully they eventualy allow at least land landings under parachutes with rockets for soft landing.   

 

soyuz has used braking rockets for decades, no reason not to do similar.  

 

I hope this is not ASAP being stupid again.   They should never have been given the extra significance after columbia. 


Edited by rubicondsrv, 17 July 2017 - 09:04 PM.

  • Mee_n_Mac likes this


#3 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 17 July 2017 - 09:08 PM

ASAP, nervous Nellies among the NASA suits, you name it.

No word on thruster cushioned 'chute landings.

Edited by DocM, 17 July 2017 - 09:22 PM.

myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#4 Dewtey

Dewtey

    Pure bred American Mutt

  • Members
  • 45,570 posts

Posted 18 July 2017 - 04:30 AM

Maybe Musk should buy an island in Belize for a D2 landing site and use it for Non-NASA astronaut missions.


... If you have to add anything to your coffee, you should probably switch to tea...
 
Ex-bureaucrat, at your service

It's tough to learn from the past, if they keep re-writing history.


#5 Anvel

Anvel

    Venus

  • Members
  • 2,706 posts

Posted 18 July 2017 - 09:23 AM

NASA is smoking the roach of their burned out influence in matters re manned spaceflight. Within a few years no one will care who and how astronauts go to the ISS or some pie in the sky NASA cis-lunar station. There will be other destinations, and big spaceships like ITS will be going there and returning from there, and the people on board will probably not fall under the definition of "astronaut" as we accept the definition of that term today.



#6 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 18 July 2017 - 09:43 AM

The official non-astronaut term in US commercial space law is "Spaceflight Participant."
myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#7 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 19 July 2017 - 05:42 PM

And then how do you get back to LMO to come back to LEO?

The vehicle is capable of SSTE (Single Stage to Earth) from Mars. It refuels there and then it's a direct shot home.


Capsule with side thrusters now irrelevant to Mars entry/descent/landing as it'll be a lifting body and much larger heat shield.

Surely whatever SpaceX lands on Mars will also have some form of propulsive landing. Aerobraking, be it by heatshield or wings or parachutes (or all in some combination) can only be the beginning parts of EDL. The L part will still have to be by rocket.
Jeff Foust @jeff_foust
A summary of Elon Musks luncheon talk, leading with plans to end development of Dragon propulsive landings. #ISSRDC http://bit.ly/2ubb9Eo

Elon Musk ✔ @elonmusk
Plan is to do powered landings on Mars for sure, but with a vastly bigger ship
5:15 PM - 19 Jul 2017

The "vastly bigger ship" will be a biconic lifting body which enters with a high angle of attack then rotates to land on its tail like F9 instead of on a runway. This allows for a much larger TPS surface area than a capsule, and it aerobrakes all the way landing rotation.

NASA has studied this kind of heavy ship/lander, but never pulled the trigger on it. Thanks s past years ITS entry sim.

eq9oxNl_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&f

Edited by DocM, 19 July 2017 - 06:01 PM.

myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#8 Mee_n_Mac

Mee_n_Mac

    Appropriately Attired

  • Members
  • 9,765 posts

Posted 19 July 2017 - 05:56 PM

So Musk is referring to the ITS  lander, or some form of it.

 

 

IIRC Red Dragon was to be a precursor for ITS, in part to prove "large scale" propulsive landing on the surface of Mars is feasible.


Edited by Mee_n_Mac, 19 July 2017 - 05:58 PM.

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity or ignorance. The latter are a lot more common than the former.

#9 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 19 July 2017 - 06:05 PM

Right about Red Dragon being a pathfinder, but they decided high payload mass landings wasn't compatible with the limited surface are of a capsules TPS.

Edited by DocM, 19 July 2017 - 06:10 PM.

myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#10 rubicondsrv

rubicondsrv

    Jupiter

  • Members
  • 4,226 posts

Posted 19 July 2017 - 08:50 PM

So Musk is referring to the ITS  lander, or some form of it.

 

 

IIRC Red Dragon was to be a precursor for ITS, in part to prove "large scale" propulsive landing on the surface of Mars is feasible.

 

but when ITS went with side entry to increase drag the red dragon became a unique case with no similarties except powered landng.   

 

powered landing dosent really need proving as much as the entire EDL sequence, so mini ITS replaces red dragon in that role.

 

plus they get a more economical falcon heavy replacment.

 

FH is proving to be as much trouble when compared to falcon 9 as delta 4 heavy is compared to normal delta 4.  




#11 silylene

silylene

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 11,642 posts

Posted 19 July 2017 - 09:03 PM

It was fun listening to Musk, live  I was only one table away, probably the back of my head was on camera..   Some real stupid questions from the audience.  Also a  lot of Musk groupees were there!


One groupee compared musk to Madonna in a question from the audience!



#12 rubicondsrv

rubicondsrv

    Jupiter

  • Members
  • 4,226 posts

Posted 19 July 2017 - 09:10 PM

It was fun listening to Musk, live  I was only one table away, probably the back of my head was on camera..   Some real stupid questions from the audience.  Also a  lot of Musk groupees were there!


One groupee compared musk to Madonna in a question from the audience!

 

nothing as bad as poo man at IAC i hope.




#13 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 19 July 2017 - 10:01 PM

No, just a soccer mom with kids who worship him instead of the Material Girl ;)


myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#14 silylene

silylene

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 11,642 posts

Posted 20 July 2017 - 05:57 AM

The mom and her kids were sitting near me.  They had adoring signs to wave too!



#15 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 21 July 2017 - 09:19 PM

Elon Musk ✔ @elonmusk
Plan is to do powered landings on Mars for sure, but with a vastly bigger ship

[than Red Dragon]

Andrew Fontain ✔ @andygen21
Should we expect you at IAC 2017 in Adelaide then?

Elon Musk ✔ @elonmusk
Yes, I postponed publishing in order to present the updated interplanetary rocket & spaceship design in Adelaide. Will be on the final day.

[final day: Sept 29, 2017]
myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#16 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 22 July 2017 - 05:18 PM

Erik Cleven @VoltzCoreAudio
Replying to @elonmusk and 2 others
Could you maybe throw a bone for the SpaceX Reddit to chew on for a few months? Like- 15%, 25% smaller? New payload cap? Any small update?

Elon Musk ✔ @elonmusk
A 9m diameter vehicle fits in our existing factories ...
1:31 PM - 22 Jul 2017

JRTIDroneShip @JRTIDroneShip
Replying to @elonmusk and 4 others
Will this replace Falcon all together?

Dragon @DragonCargo
Reddit speculation says quite likely. Already cheaper than a F9 launch, and fully reusable, not to mention the insanely low per kg cost.
5:19 PM - 22 Jul 2017

Edited by DocM, 22 July 2017 - 05:22 PM.

myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#17 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 24 July 2017 - 12:59 PM

Jeff Foust @jeff_foust
Scimemis slide on upcoming SpX-12 states that it will be the last to use new build Dragon; rest of CRS missions will be reused capsules.
11:59 AM - 24 Jul 2017

Stephen Clark @StephenClark1
NASAs Greg Williams: Installation of SpaceXs crew access arm and white room at pad 39A now planned for late fall."
11:02 AM - 24 Jul 2017
myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#18 silylene

silylene

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 11,642 posts

Posted 25 July 2017 - 07:42 AM

Elon Musk’s Mars rocket may be about to lose half of its engines
Downscaling the Mars booster suggests that Musk may be bending toward reality.

ERIC BERGER - 7/24/2017, 9:12 AM

 

LINK Ars Technica


and some of the 150+ comments at the end of the article are interesting.



#19 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 25 July 2017 - 08:09 AM

The idea of the subscale BFR commercial launcher, now nicknamed ITSy* on NSF, losing the outer ring of engines isn't really new and it was floated as a technology leader/next-gen launcher some time back. Remember my mentioning a mini-ITS?. That didn't just pop out of thin air, and it was speculated to be a 7 engine 6-7 meter (just the ITS center cluster) or a 16-21 engine 9-10 meter (full or partial mid-ring.)

Possible reasons for it to be larger are 1) position them to take over if/when SLS collapses for Deep Space Gateway & lunar missions (NASA's new focus), 2) do the Mars precursor missions using the same EDL (entry, descent & landing) method as the full ITS (Red Dragon didn't) and 3) it could deploy a full 50 or 75 satellite CommX orbital plane per launch.

* ITSy + (BITSy = BigITS)

Edited by DocM, 25 July 2017 - 08:13 AM.

myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#20 flynn

flynn

    Copper

  • Members
  • 875 posts

Posted 25 July 2017 - 01:17 PM

When looking to the prospects of a new developments things tend to get overplayed in the short term and the impact underestimated in the long term.

 

This holds true for spaceflight in general and reading those comments seems to hold true for Elons activities.


A minute of perfection was worth the effort. A moment was the most you could ever expect from perfection.

#21 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 25 July 2017 - 05:34 PM

This is shaping up to be a new paradigm; a reusable super-heavy that's cheap enough to fly it can be used for "normal" launches, or clusters of payloads such as constellation deployments.
myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#22 Dewtey

Dewtey

    Pure bred American Mutt

  • Members
  • 45,570 posts

Posted 25 July 2017 - 07:12 PM

Pending the touchy feely folks at ASAP.


... If you have to add anything to your coffee, you should probably switch to tea...
 
Ex-bureaucrat, at your service

It's tough to learn from the past, if they keep re-writing history.


#23 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 25 July 2017 - 08:01 PM

ASAP has zero to do with cargo missions in order to build flight history. The hints are a lot of commonality between a reusable cargo carrier and the crew vehicle, and with flight history objections are harder to justify.
myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky

#24 rubicondsrv

rubicondsrv

    Jupiter

  • Members
  • 4,226 posts

Posted 25 July 2017 - 08:43 PM

Pending the touchy feely folks at ASAP.

 

Not involved with this unless nasa crew are flown on it.

 

also no iss cargo contracts either so no forbidding testing landing on cargo flights.

 

dragon ran into the problem of NASA refusing to allow spacex to combine cargo flights and landing tests due to risk of cargo damage in a hard landing, not clear if they will allow landings on land cushioned by rockets, but they would not allow the full propulsive landings without spacex doing seperate test flights until they were satisfied.   

 

with the changes to the bigger spacecraft design there was no reason to try to fit test flights into the launch manifest.   my suspicion is it has as much to do with the schedule impacts of additional flights on paying customers as it did with the costs of the flights.   

 

Spacex sees dragon as a dead end, and is not going to put more into it unless a customer pays for added functionality. 




#25 DocM

DocM

    Pluto

  • Members
  • 24,047 posts

Posted 27 July 2017 - 01:25 PM

What he said; larger vehicles which leverage the landing techs developed in the F9-R program are the path forward. As God and RAH intended.
myguns550-2.jpg

The Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one can't stay in the cradle forever
~~ Konstantin Tsiolkovsky



Reply to this topic



  


0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users