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Hurricane "Irma"


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#1 newsartist

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Posted 31 August 2017 - 11:20 PM

Keep an eye on this one folks!

 

It is still WAY out there, past the Islands.  It is, however, in the right place, and at the right time of the season.  It is right in the mix of the worst East Coast hurricanes in recorded history.

 

She MIGHT curve north toward Bermuda, or go straight west to the Mexican/Gulf Coasts.

 

Odds and the Models  are presently favoring a track into the Bahamas. ...and the East Coast.



#2 XZG 1138

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Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:30 AM

The 'I's' have it. Tropical storms and hurricanes beginning with 'I' are particularly destructive. The ninth letter and on average the ninth storm of the season are when poo hits the fans more so than the other letters... ahem except for 'A' with regards to the USA.

http://articles.sun-...storms-category

https://weather.com/...ired-since-2000

 


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#3 Dewtey

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Posted 01 September 2017 - 05:57 AM

Lots of open ocean, and she's already a cat 3...  Yeah, need to watch this.  Lest we not forget the disturbance going on in the Gulf of Mexico, might be setting us up for a 1-2 punch after the devastating blast of Harvey.


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#4 Dewtey

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 05:29 AM

Looks like the 'disturbance' in the Gulf is gone, thank goodness.  But the updated track of Irma looks like big time trouble for the east coast of the US.  She's not hooking north as soon as was earlier predicted, possibly heading between Florida and Cuba, THEN going north, right through Atlanta...  Next week might be...  interesting.


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#5 StarRider1701

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 05:36 AM

Might be better if she turns North, that's all the Gulf Coast needs is another Cat 4 hurricane right now!



#6 Dewtey

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 07:26 AM

Irma has just been upgraded to a cat 5, with sustained winds of 175mph! Still bearing down on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, I fear many, many islanders will be swept away with this monster storm.


Looks like the 'disturbance' in the Gulf is gone, thank goodness. 

 

/sigh I was wrong about this disturbance, updates to it were overshadowed by Harvey, and now by Irma.  Chance of it becoming a named storm are now 50-50, up from 20% last week.  Oh, and there's another one that just left the African coast with an 80% chance of developing into something worthy of a name.


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#7 Bill Slugg

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 09:59 AM

Barbuda is going to take a direct hit from the northern side, 175+mph? This island has only 1000 people who have mostly flown over to Grenada. It is also very low and flat. Major nesting ground for birds, notably the Frigate bird. Very sad.

 

Note that, from the fan laws, the noise involved with a fan increases to the 6th power of the tip speed. I presume same goes for winds. A 90 mph wind SCREAMS, imagine what a sustained 175 mph storm is like. Gusts add 15% to that so top so max speeds would be 200 mph. The noise would be about 100 times that of a 90 mph storm.


Edited by Bill Slugg, 05 September 2017 - 10:03 AM.


#8 silylene

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 10:33 AM

Tropical Storm Jose just got officially named, it is following a few days behind Irma in a similar track.  Current long range forecasts for Jose show it strengthening to Cat 2+, and probably later curling N towards Bermuda.  Hopefully this track is maintained.



#9 Dewtey

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 11:47 AM

Latest Hurricane Hunter fly through shows winds of 186 mph...  If there were a cat 6 storm, this would certainly qualify...


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#10 silylene

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 01:43 PM

The Irma forecast track is almost the same as the Cat 4/5 1960 Hurricane Donna.

 

donna-track_0.gif



#11 newsartist

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 05:27 PM

Yup, it is our time of year.

 

'Donna's' track looks a bit too far west on that map. We were on the easy side of the storm, but sure got a LOT of rain.

 

The only heavier rain I ever saw was a thunderstorm in Gettysburg.  (My avatar is sunrise after that deluge.)



#12 XZG 1138

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 09:20 PM

http://www.smh.com.a...905-gybmy5.html

The storm also ranks as one of the most powerful hurricanes ever observed in the Atlantic Ocean and bears close resemblance to the super typhoons that form in the western Pacific Ocean.

 

The US National Hurricane Centre described the storm's appearance on Tuesday morning as both "spectacular" and "extremely impressive".

 

It has all of the textbook features of an extreme hurricane. It is almost perfectly symmetrical with a clear eye. Towering thunderstorms wrap around the calm centre, tilting outward with altitude, a phenomenon known as the "stadium effect". And then, orbiting the eye, are small swirls known as meso-vortices.


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#13 Ath3na

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 09:38 PM

They never name them after me...
... Y'all afraid of a little Cat-10
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#14 XZG 1138

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 09:47 PM

Behind Irma now in the queue is Tropical Storm Jose. I always am one thread behind, in the Harvey thread I mentioned Irma and that was 7 days ago.

 

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The doomsayers woos are thumping their bibles and saying this is the end of America and the eclipse was the starting pistol.


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#15 Ath3na

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 09:51 PM

Hahaha!
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#16 silylene

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 10:42 AM

Irma is looking more and more like Donna:

at201711_ensmodel.gif

 

Jose is going nowhere:

at201712_ensmodel.gif



#17 silylene

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 12:09 PM

Progression of NWS forecasts.   You can see each new forecast drift the turn up a little more east.

 

a15d9b448e87e49a48219f3d6485a8c253ba533c



#18 pizzaguy

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 05:24 PM

On the way home, predictions for Atlanta are now downgraded to "winds up to 50mph and maybe an inch of rain".

Fine by me, but I was kinda looking forward to a half foot or more of rain.   THe would put up to two feet in the lake, and it's still five feet down....


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#19 larper

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 05:28 PM

On the way home, predictions for Atlanta are now downgraded to "winds up to 50mph and maybe an inch of rain".

Fine by me, but I was kinda looking forward to a half foot or more of rain.   THe would put up to two feet in the lake, and it's still five feet down....

Careful what you wish for.



#20 pizzaguy

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 05:59 PM

HEY LARPER!    Here ya go - proof that the second coming is upon us! 

 

http://www.independe...r-a7931286.html

 

US-bound Hurricane Irma has gotten so strong that it is showing up on equipment designed to measure earthquakes. 

Stephen Hicks, a seismologist at the National Oceanography Centre Southampton, said seismometer recordings on Guadeloupe, an island group in the southern Caribbean Sea, show the now-Category 5 storm approaching the Lesser Antilles, another Caribbean island group. 

“Seismometer recordings from the past 48 hours on Guadeloupe show Cat. 5 #Hurricane #Irma driving closer toward the Lesser Antilles,” Dr Hicks tweeted.

 

The seismometer is on the island at the end of the arrow.    Some headline writers should be hung.

 

Attached File  Capture.JPG   170.12KB   0 downloads

 

 


Edited by pizzaguy, 06 September 2017 - 06:01 PM.

"Ignorance is paradise to the arrogant" - Pizza on May 7, 2016

"Built on the Mercedes R170/SLK320 platform... the Crossfire has taken on, sort of, a cult following."
 
Del is a greedy asshat!  :woot: 

#21 Bill Slugg

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 06:53 PM

Yes, this is the example of fake news given by Limbaugh today. In fact, all hurricanes show up on seismometers as do the pounding of the waves against the eastern and western seaboards under normal conditions. Elements on the Left are asserting, as a result, that Limbaugh is dangerously referring to Hurricane Irma as "fake news". This is an excellent reason why I do not take anything coming from the Left as true. 


Edited by Bill Slugg, 06 September 2017 - 06:55 PM.


#22 Ath3na

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 07:03 PM

Progression of NWS forecasts.   You can see each new forecast drift the turn up a little more east.

 

a15d9b448e87e49a48219f3d6485a8c253ba533c

 

Man, their early models really missed that hook through Adv #31, huh?


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#23 larper

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 07:10 PM

We have a supplier that does some of their fabrication in USVI.  Hope they make it through ok.



#24 newsartist

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 08:26 PM

No the GOOD models had it pretty well pegged early on..

 

From my post #1 on this thread.

 

"...Odds and the Models  are presently favoring a track into the Bahamas. ...and the East Coast....."



#25 silylene

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 07:38 AM

 

 

Man, their early models really missed that hook through Adv #31, huh?

 

 

 

No, the NWS cone model only shows 5 days ahead.  Since the upwards motion in the early NWS cone models exceeded 5 days,so it wasn't shown.  But the 10 day 'spaghetti' models back then did show the upwards tilt, even though it wasn't plotted.

 

The point is that the early models forecast a more westerly motion prior to the upwards tilt, and the new models made each day have progressively moved the upwards tilt more easterly.






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