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Mt Agung Boom Pool.


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#1 newsartist

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:12 AM

Test your luck.

 

Pick a time and date for Mt Agung's MAJOR eruption. Expected by ALMOST everybody....

 

newsie says no major eruption in the next 90 days.



#2 SJQ

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 09:14 AM

A volcano pool?  Can I get in? 

 

Sure, c'mon in - the lava is fine!   :moose:

 

 

I'll go with nothing major in the next 180 days.  Rumblies and puffs don't count.


Flying is merely the second greatest thrill ever....   .....landing is the first!

 

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#3 Archer17

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 09:57 AM

It'll erupt at 0047 UTC on Monday, Nov. 5, 2018 but no one will be around to see it as this planet's population will perish following a 'global-killer' asteroid strike Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 2137 UTC.

 

Remember, you read it here first.


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#4 XZG 1138

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:00 AM

Hmm, ok...          right...       now!

 

Nope.

 

Ok... right now!

 

Wait, wait, I'm getting better at this.

 

Ok...   Now!

 

Crap, I don't know. This is tough.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh look.... a butterfly! *chases after it*.

-------------

 

 

Early March.

 

Assuming Nibiru doesn't get us first.

 

 


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#5 SJQ

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:10 AM

:moose: 


Flying is merely the second greatest thrill ever....   .....landing is the first!

 

Stinson's Law: Just because you can see a part, it doesn't mean you can get at it.


#6 Ath3na

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 12:37 PM

Sunday.
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#7 silylene

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:10 PM

Now?  Big one in a few hours?

 

41 mins ago...(the video is not 'terrifyng')

 

LINK

 

Bali volcano UPDATE: Mount Agung hurls smoke and ash into sky in terrifying footage

 

TERRIFYING video of Bali’s Mount Agung volcano spewing large clouds of steam, smoke and ash has emerged with it expected to erupt “within hours”, according to experts.

 

Bali-volcano-filmed-spewing-steam-859488



#8 Ath3na

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:24 PM

I guess we need to define "eruption" first?
 
If we're just talking pyroclastic flow (which includes hot gas), it's been "erupting" for a long time...
 
 
A "Plinian Eruption" would involve ejecting gas or ash several miles into the atmosphere.
 
Free Dictionary says: "volcanic eruption - the sudden occurrence of a violent discharge of steam and volcanic materialvolcanic eruption - the sudden occurrence of a violent discharge of steam and volcanic material"
 
That brings us to "sudden".
 
The International Red Cross defines it: "Volcanic eruptions happen when lava and gas are discharged from a volcanic vent. "  - but that's stupid since pyroclastics are generally far more frequent and devastating than lava.
 
The Wikis say:
 
Volcanic eruptions arise through three main mechanisms:[1]

Gas release under decompression causing magmatic eruptions
Thermal contraction from chilling on contact with water causing phreatomagmatic eruptions
Ejection of entrained particles during steam eruptions causing phreatic eruptions

 

And gives us types (and indecies) of:

 

Hawaiian

Strombolian

Vulcanian

Pelean

Plinian

Ultra-Plinian

Supervolcanic

 
... I'm kinda thinking we need to get the lawyers involved to define the terms of the pool...


Edited by Ath3na, 27 September 2017 - 03:50 PM.

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#9 Ath3na

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:44 PM

Or we can go with "I don't know what it is, but I recognize it when I see it" ?


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#10 silylene

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:50 PM

How about the video is actually, truly 'terrifying' ?  As in a Mt St Helens/Mt Pinatubo terrifying?

 

As you said, "I recognize it when I see it'

 

The link with the video I posted doesn't come close to that threshold despite the headline.....yet



#11 Ath3na

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 03:59 PM

Can we say "explosive eruption" ?

How about the video is actually, truly 'terrifying' ?  As in a Mt St Helens/Mt Pinatubo terrifying?

 

As you said, "I recognize it when I see it'

 

The link with the video I posted doesn't come close to that threshold despite the headline.....yet

 

I agree.  There are volcanoes that sit there "smoking" for ... well... ever.  Sure, they're releasing gasses, so it's something of a "continuous eruption", but no one looks at it and goes "oh sh_t, that volcano is erupting!  ... Did I remember to put my affairs in order?  Can the kids find my Last Will And Testament?!? " 

I'd count, for example, a "Phreatic eruption", which happens when water is super-heated by the magma, and blows a sh_t-ton of steam, ash, volcanic bombs, and big-ass rocks out of a vent.  There's no new lava flow, it doesn't glow at night, but you wouldn't want to be standing under some bus-sized boulder that's just been blown 20k ft into the air either! 

 

 

Pending qualified legal review  - I'm adopting my personal descriptor:  "explosive eruption".  We could try to weasel around "explosive" - but everyone else here will tie you up and beat the eff out of you with a sock full of Basalt. 


Edited by Ath3na, 27 September 2017 - 04:00 PM.

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#12 newsartist

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 04:37 PM

Some common sense needs to be applied.

 

With exceptions, (Krakatoa is one!), phreatic events are usually local, and below the threshold of "Full Eruptions".  They do often act as throat clearing burps, that free up magmatic eruptions hours, days, or weeks later.

 

Our pool will be scored on the 'Port "Wow Factor"< which is far removed from the Media 'Sky is Falling" reports.



#13 Mee_n_Mac

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:28 PM

I will win the pool at 12:30 PM on Nov 22 of this year.
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#14 silylene

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 05:39 PM

Not enough "wow" yet.  But erupting.

 

bali-volcano-pictures-mount-agung-news-l



#15 silylene

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 06:40 PM

Apparently there were some beautiful hikes on Mt Agung.  Had I know, I might have considered Bali more as a destination.

 

Hiking-Mount-Agung.jpg?resize=700%2C467



#16 Ath3na

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 06:53 PM

I will win the pool at 12:30 PM on Nov 22 of this year.

 

It's going to be Sunday.  I've already set the timer. 


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#17 silylene

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:07 PM

Last time with Mount Agung there was quite an extended small eruption phase before the big boom.  Took 27 days from the first eruption to the big boom.   So I will pick Oct 26 for the BIG BOOM.

 

from Wikipedia

 

1963–64 eruption[edit]
On February 18, 1963, local residents heard loud explosions and saw clouds rising from the crater of Mount Agung. On February 24, lava began flowing down the northern slope of the mountain, eventually traveling 7 km in the next 20 days. On March 17, the volcano erupted (VEI 5), sending debris 8 to 10 km into the air and generating massive pyroclastic flows.[5] These flows devastated numerous villages, killing approximately 1500 people. Cold lahars caused by heavy rainfall after the eruption killed an additional 200. A second eruption on May 16 led to pyroclastic flows that killed another 200 inhabitants.[6]

 

The lava flows missed, sometimes by mere yards, the Mother Temple of Besakih. The saving of the temple is regarded by Balinese as miraculous and a signal from the gods that they wished to demonstrate their power but not destroy the monument that the Balinese had erected.



#18 DocM

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 02:40 AM

1600 UT December 13th.

Edited by DocM, 28 September 2017 - 02:43 AM.

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#19 silylene

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 07:28 PM

Mount Agung is puffing out gas clouds of an hour ago.

 

People are praying to stop it.  

 

_98000618_041946541-1.jpg

 

Bali-volcano-update-860114.jpg



#20 Mee_n_Mac

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 07:57 PM

I knew I shoulda consulted with the bomoh before placing my time & date.

raja+bomoh+tiruan.jpg


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#21 TheBigCat

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 08:57 PM

I don't get the fuss. Maybe it's the location. Redoubt goes for weeks on end and the only thing in the press is that pilots on Great Circle flights between the West Coast and Asia need to reroute to avoid the ash. Agung grumbles a little more than usual and it's headline news that 10 million Balinese are being told to evacuate for their safety. Maybe the real issue is the ten million Balinese vs about thirty Alaskan brown bears who probably trucked off the other direction when the harmonic tremors started.



#22 Ath3na

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Posted 28 September 2017 - 08:59 PM

Gee, ya think?


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#23 silylene

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Posted 29 September 2017 - 03:30 AM

Hmmm.    This just showed up on my newsfeed.

 

Mount Agung volcano: Satellite image reveals new crack in crater

 

LINK

 

Bali: Satellite images have revealed a new crack in the crater of Bali's Mount Agung and a pillar of white steam is now emitting continuously from the volcano.

 

"The fact the quakes keep occurring shows Mount Agung really is in a critical condition, we are just waiting for the d-day it erupts," Gede Suantika from the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation tells Fairfax Media.

"Satellite images show there are changes of solfatara [a natural volcanic steam vent] and there are cracks on the bottom of the volcano."

 

Mr Suantika said white steam was rarely seen last week from monitoring posts 12 kilometres away but this week could be seen if the sky was clear.

"In the last three days in particular the steam looks higher like a cloud of smoke from a factory funnel," he said.



#24 Ath3na

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Posted 29 September 2017 - 03:38 AM

Just as planned.
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#25 TheBigCat

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Posted 29 September 2017 - 04:12 AM

Gee, ya think?

 

No more often than absolutely necessary, if I can help it. 

ETA: Just as much data can be gleaned from remote volcanoes, but it's a lot more convenient to do sciency stuff on a volcano if it's near a population center than if it's in the Andes or Alaska or the Kamchatka Peninsula.It's also easier to shake the money tree to do the sciency stuff if you have millions of people looking over your shoulder wondering if their homes are going to get blown away in a pyroclastic flow. St. Helens increased our knowledge of volcanoes a hundred fold within a year of the initial rumblings in March of 1980. How is this possible, that one single volcanic eruption could manage such a thing? Simple. Mostly we knew about hot spot volcanoes like the one which formed the Hawaiian Islands. St Helens is a subduction zone volcano, they make up the bulk of the volcanoes of the world, including the entire Pacific Ring of Fire, and almost all of them are in rough terrain. St Helens, on the other hand, has one major US city forty miles SW and another 130 miles NNW. You better believe that in 1980 everyone in Seattle and Portland became amateur vulcanologists. .       


Edited by TheBigCat, 29 September 2017 - 04:43 AM.





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